The wrong team is favorited in this match up and I'm taking the points with great value. Northern Illinois is a tremendous team, but they are flawed and one dimensional. They have significant issues stopping the pass and have struggled to stop the run at times as well. Their defense was much stronger last year and now they have to face Bowling Green that is just a much more complete team. Don't buy into all the hype on one player. Football is a team sport and Bowling Green statistically does not have many weaknesses. They are top 10 in defense in the country and top 30 in offense without being ranked out side the top 40 in rushing or passing offense/defense as well as scoring or rushing defense.
Northern Illinois has only played 1 team inside the top 50 in rushing defense and the majority of their opponents rank 95th or worse vs. the run. Lynch won't be able to pass the ball in this game and Bowling Green can reliever their linebackers to concentrate 100% on the run which will be the difference. I think Bowling Green is far too dominant on this side of the ball and they've gotten better as the year has gone on. They are better on third down offensively and defensively and the same goes in the red zone where they have only allowed 10 possessions in their red zone in conference play. Northern Illinois is more than double that. Matt Johnson and his offense will find time with a balanced attack, dominate the time of possession while Jordan Lynch will struggle to find his way.
